According to analysts from First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), Ukraine’s barley exports in September (280,000 tonnes) will fall down by half compared to August (600,000 tonnes) due to a drop in purchases of this crop by China, which used to export more than half of Ukraine’s barley.
China’s focus will probably be shifted to Australian barley, which will be received in December-January. According to First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), without Chinese contracts, monthly exports of Ukrainian barley will not exceed 300,000 tonnes.
The domestic market starts to react to these changes: some traders are already stopping barley acceptance, switching to other crops, such as corn.
According to the analyst, there was a high correlation between the barley and wheat markets, and there will be a rise in both wheat and barley prices.
FUAC said that the notional barley prices are still in the range of $170-172 per tonne. The wheat market is expected to pull the barley market along with it. Therefore, a slight barley price increase may be expected by the end of August and beginning of September, but after that barley may become a more niche crop.
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