Association reports that up to 14 mln tonnes of wheat might be exported by Ukraine in 2024-2025 agricultural year

According to the report of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council’s (UAC) Pusk analytical cooperative, Ukraine is likely to produce within 19 million to 20 million tonnes of wheat production in in 2024, and the country would export up to 14 million tonnes of it in the 2024-2025 agricultural year (July 2024 to June 2025).
Pusk reported that wheat offer will significantly shrink in the new season. Ukrainian wheat stocks decreased by 3 million tonnes compared to last year. The country has signed contracts for exporting 1.65 million tonnes. Initial estimates predict that Ukrainian wheat production this year will not exceed 19 million to 20 million tonnes, compared to 23 million tonnes harvested last year. So, it will be possible for Ukraine to export no more than 13 million to 14 million tonnes in the new season, according to Ukrainian media.
The export potential of wheat stocks would be reduced by this decline in them and in production in the next season by 2 million to 3 million tonnes.
The report said that wheat would be made more expensive in the new season by these objective factors. The price will rise from $200 to $210 per tonne of food-grade wheat at least as early as in the fall and winter. Both the exchange and traders would also be pushed up by weather risks.
Growing demand and prices for food-grade wheat, as buyers are accumulating stocks, was mentioned in the report. Cheaper logistics as another factor boosting sales of Ukrainian wheat was also named by the experts.
According to Pusk, the CPT market has a positive effect from recent going of freight prices down by $2 to $4 per tonne a week. As we can see, growing trade in grain owes to this tendency concerning wheat prices. Downward trends on the physical market, especially based on CPT, are often seen in May and June. However, record high prices may be reached this season by food-grade wheat, although this will happen no sooner than in September.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports an increase of its outlook of wheat exports from Ukraine in the current agricultural year (July 2023 to June 2024) by 1.5 million tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes in April.
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