Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments demonstrated a sharp downfall year-on-year between January and August 2025.
According to Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments have decreased by 49% combined year-on-year between January and August 2025. The decrease of grain harvests by 12% and 6% respectively in the second half of 2024 caused a smaller export surplus of both countries. As a result, the combined production from both countries fell by 10%.
Consequently, Russian wheat export quota has been cut by 63% between February and June 2025.
Ukraine has maintained its seaborne shipments, but wheat and maize are now excluded from the the revised deal after the expiration of the EU’s tariff-free trade agreement for Ukrainian agricultural exports in June.
Last year, Russian and Ukrainian grain exports took the fourth and fifth places in the world. Russia was the leader in wheat exports, while Ukraine had the fourth place in maize and fifth in wheat exports. Nevertheless, Ukrainian wheat and maize yields dropped by 33% compared to the last harvest. Opposingly, there was a 9% increase of Russian wheat yields.
Gouveia says that an estimated 6% decline in global grain shipments between January and August 2025 happened because of weakened shipments out of Russia and Ukraine. However, shipments from the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Romania increased and have partially offset the weaker cargoes from Russia and Ukraine. Generally, demand for panamax, supramax and handysize ships has been negatively affected by this.
Ports in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Middle East have been the destination of 70% of grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine this year. This shows a 13 percentage points raise compared to the previous year, opposite to a 62% drop year-on-year of shipments to East Africa and to South, Southeast and East Asia.
According to Gouveia, they expect a partial recovery in Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments over the next twelve months. The USDA also anticipates a 19% surge in Ukrainian maize yields. Nevertheless, an expected 2% increase in Russian yields wheat and an 8% decline in Ukraine may make shipments remain stable. In general, they expect grain production of the both countries to fall by 6% compared to pre-war levels.
NH Logistics UKR has been offering IOR Importer of Record and EOR Exporter of Record services since 2001 and is a market leader in Ukraine and Eurasia, supporting many clients with their import/export shipments.
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