The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for Ukraine’s grain production by 13% and for exports by 26% due to exhausted stocks in the country, Ukrainian media reported, citing the USDA.
According to the February forecast, the country’s final grain stocks in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024 – June 2025) are estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, up 19% year-on-year, but it is much less than it was before the crisis began in February 2022.
The European Union will remain an important destination for Ukraine, given trade policy liberalization and geographical proximity.
The USDA forecasts Ukraine’s 2024-2025 MY wheat harvest at 22.9 million tonnes, which is the same as last year’s, but its exports will be down 19% to 15 million tonnes. Barley harvest will be 3% lower than in the 2023-2024 season and is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes, while exports will reach 2.6 million tonnes. The forecast for rye production is lowered by 18% to 190,000 tonnes.
Rye has become a niche crop for Ukrainian farmers, therefore, its production and exports may vary significantly from year to year, the USDA said.
The USDA forecasts the largest drop in corn, production of which will fall 24% compared to the 2023-2024 MY to 24.6 million tonnes, while exports will go down 33% to 19.6 million tonnes.
The final grain stocks are forecast at 722,000 tonnes, slightly higher than they were in the previous year but well below the 2.8 million tonnes that were in reserve at the end of the 2022-2023 season.
Source Link