Russia is no longer among Serbia’s top five trading partners, with other countries filling the gap. China is increasingly solidifying its position in the Serbian market, edging closer to Germany, which remains Serbia’s largest trading partner. Other significant import and export partners include Italy, Turkey, and Hungary.
Had Serbia not exported to China and Turkey at such a significant scale this year, the country would have missed out on nearly a billion euros in trade, particularly as Germany, a key economic partner, is now grappling with a major economic downturn.
Europe is facing various challenges, from trade and political upheavals to an automotive industry crisis, all of which have repercussions for Serbia. The EU is currently focusing on these priorities, leading Serbia’s political leadership to announce a potential delay of up to two months in joining the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). Meanwhile, student protests in Belgrade and other cities are growing louder, bolstered by support from educators and tennis champion Novak Djokovic.
Here are five key points to know today:
China receives the bulk of Serbian exports
The crisis in the EU, especially in Germany, whose economy is in decline, is visibly affecting Serbian exports. While Germany remains Serbia’s top trading partner in terms of trade volume, exports to China and Turkey are on the rise.
According to data published in the latest issue of Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT) from December, Serbian exports to China in the first nine months of this year increased by 65%, equivalent to €531 million. Meanwhile, exports to Turkey rose by 80%, amounting to €300 million.
Between January and September 2023, the export-to-import coverage ratio in trade with China was 24.1%, compared to 35.6% this year.
Patience needed for SEPA membership
After EU officials announced last autumn that Serbia’s entry into the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) might face minor delays, recent statements from Serbian political leaders suggested that the delay could extend to two months beyond the initially planned date of January 1, 2025.
Joining SEPA will enable cheaper payment transactions within the region and the EU, Serbia’s largest export market.
During his visit to Brussels on Wednesday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that Serbia is expected to join SEPA in January or February, without providing further details. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also addressed the issue, noting that Albania and Montenegro will join the system next year, followed by North Macedonia and Serbia.
Investors seek safe havens
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time. While the move was anticipated, investors chose to avoid risky investments. Why?
Although the rate cut was expected, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks—and subsequent comments during a press conference—indicated that the central bank might delay further rate cuts until 2025, even if inflation remains above 2%. This sparked a reaction in the markets.
The market anticipates two to three rate cuts next year. “I think that’s an overreaction,” commented Mark Luschini of Janney Montgomery Scott to Bloomberg. He suggested that the market’s surprise over the forecast of only one rate cut in 2025 seems exaggerated and unwarranted.
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