Ukrainian cheesemakers may lose a substantial part of the domestic market due to a highly probable increase in imports, Ukrainian media said, citing the Infagro industry analytical agency.
“The main reason for growing cheese imports is the disparity of prices for Ukrainian and European products. Imported cheese is much cheaper than local,” the agency said.
There are two ways to save the day, namely lower prices for Ukrainian cheese or a substantial devaluation of the hryvnia, it said.
The first option is unlikely, as manufacturers have forgotten how to use this instrument to stimulate sales. Even traditional cheese won’t be sold for less than UAH300 per kilogram in the near future. Whereas a devaluation of the hryvnia is quite possible, considering the crisis and the current state of the economy, the agency said.
“This is a forecast, and now we see a 50% increase in imports of rennet cheeses (hard, semi-hard, white) in December [2024] versus December 2023 to 4,600 tonnes. European processed cheese imports grew 28% to more than 500 tonnes,” it said.
If the high import trend persists, half of all cheese sold in Ukraine will come from Europe, the agency said.
The overall results of the cheese sector were acceptable in 2024, it said. Imports of rennet cheeses increased by 11% to 29,000 tonnes last year, which is almost a third less than in the pre-crisis 2021. Purchases of processed cheeses increased by 14% year-on-year to 4,600 tonnes in 2024, which is a quarter less than in 2021.
At the same time, Ukrainian producers increased the export of semi-hard cheeses by 9% to almost 7,000 tonnes in 2024. Exports of processed cheeses (together with the curd product) decreased by 4% to 4,200 tonnes.
“In fact, local cheesemakers have food for thought. Something needs to be done to prevent imports from becoming as significant as they were in 2021. Back then, a balance was still possible owing to a large number of consumers, a large part of whom has moved abroad. Of course, producers can pin their hopes on foreign trade, but cheese exports are hard to increase. Logistics to post-Soviet countries remains quite complex and expensive. In other markets, it will simply be impossible to compete with European goods by price,” the agency said.
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