In recent years, Ukraine has become by far Poland’s most important economic partner among the countries of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Dynamic geopolitical changes after 2022 have led to a profound reconstruction of the structure of trade and investment flows, in which Ukraine has taken a central position in both exports and Polish direct investments in the region.
A sharp increase in the importance of Ukraine in Polish exports
Ukraine’s share in Polish exports increased from over 2 percent in 2021 to about 3.5 percent in 2024, and in some months of the last three years it reached as much as 5 percent. The value of Polish exports to Ukraine in 2024 exceeded EUR 13 billion, which means more than double the increase compared to the period before the full-scale Russian invasion.
Currently, Ukraine is responsible for about two-thirds of all Polish exports directed to the countries of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. In the first half of 2025, Poland’s share in Ukrainian imports exceeded 9 percent, and in Ukraine’s exports to Poland over 12 percent.
Today, Poland is the second – after China – supplier of goods to the Ukrainian market and one of the most important recipients of Ukrainian products. At the same time, the trade balance remains clearly positive on the side of Poland.
Factors of growth in Poland-Ukraine trade
The dynamic growth in trade after 2022 was due to several overlapping factors. The most important thing was the transition of Ukraine’s economy to war mode, the destruction of infrastructure and the disruption of part of traditional supply chains. Under these conditions, Poland played an important role as a transit and logistics country, especially in the first months of the conflict.
Geographical proximity and the ability of Polish companies to respond quickly to changing market needs were particularly important. In the structure of exports, deliveries related to Ukraine’s war effort – including ammunition, armed vehicles and armament – have become particularly important, where Ukraine absorbs almost all of Polish exports in these categories.
Apart from the defence sector, Poland remains an important supplier in industries such as fuel, household appliances, agri-food products and automotive. At the same time, there is further significant growth potential in sectors such as construction, renewable energy, agri-food and industrial production.
International estimates indicate that the potential for growth in exports to Ukraine by 2030 concerns cars, military equipment (ammunition, armour), as well as construction materials and energy solutions.
Challenges and limitations in trading on the Ukrainian market
Despite the dynamic growth, the Ukrainian market remains specific and demanding. Entrepreneurs point to persistent institutional problems, including non-transparency of regulations, corruption and inefficiency of the judicial system, although at the same time there is a noticeable gradual improvement in the business environment.
Logistics infrastructure remains a significant limitation. As indicated by entrepreneurs, the biggest bottlenecks are transshipment terminals, border infrastructure and the capacity of border crossings. In wartime conditions, security of supply and the ability to carry out road transport also become important.
At the same time, the Ukrainian market is characterized by high business relationality, where personal contacts and networks of connections play a significant role. The relatively low activity of Polish companies in international public tenders, despite the wide range of available opportunities, also remains an important barrier.
Polish investments in Ukraine – concentration and cautious growth
After 2022, Ukraine became the largest recipient of Polish investments in the region of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. According to NBP data, the value of Polish direct investments in Ukraine at the end of 2024 amounted to USD 495 million (EUR 0o. EUR 470 million), while the data of the National Bank of Ukraine indicate a higher level – USD 1.21 billion (approx. EUR 1.15 billion).
The differences result from different methodologies, but both sources confirm the growing role of Ukraine as the main destination of Polish capital in the region. In 2024, Polish investments in Ukraine accounted for more than 2% of Ukraine’s total FDI liabilities.
A characteristic feature of investments is the high share of reinvested profits – in 2024 they accounted for approx.
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