According to Fitch Ratings, Serbia got BB+ credit rating with a positive outlook for its upgrade to investment grade for the fourth consecutive time.
Fitch explains Serbia’s credit rating by a stable mix of economic policies, a commitment to maintaining exchange rate stability, responsible fiscal management. High foreign exchange reserves and a higher gross domestic product per capita compared to countries with the same rating are also important.
Expectations of accelerated economic growth, fuelled by investments, stabilization of public debt at a relatively low level, and the economy’s resilience to external shocks are also basis for the positive outlook.
According to Fitch, Serbia’s economic growth accelerated in early 2026 and will remain stable due to the completion of projects from the “Leap into the Future” program. The holding of the EXPO 2027 international exhibition will be an additional impetus to growth in 2027.
Fitch expects economic growth to stabilize at around 3.5 percent per year. Also, gross domestic product per capita, expressed in dollars, would grow by about 50 percent between 2024 and 2028.
As Fitch estimates, Serbia’s current account deficit attained only 0.4 percent of projected GDP in the first four months. A smaller trade deficit, strong exports, especially in the automotive industry, a larger surplus in the exchange of services and an increase in remittance contributed to this.
A current account deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP is less than the 4.9 percent recorded the previous year, despite higher energy prices. They expect higher exports of tourism services related to the EXPO 2027 to cause a further decline in 2027.
As the agency estimates, net foreign direct investment inflows will stabilize at just below 3 percent of GDP in the period from 2026 to 2028.
As Fitch expects, Serbia’s fiscal policy will remain responsible despite the potential upcoming election cycle. The agency estimates the fiscal deficit in 2026 at 3 percent of GDP, despite support measures for vulnerable groups and pensioners worth around 0.6 percent of GDP.
As the report shows, higher fiscal measures will cover these revenues. Meanwhile, they expect the fiscal deficit to decrease to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2028. This is in line with the goals defined in the arrangement with the International Monetary Fund.
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