Fitch Ratings has affirmed Serbia’s credit rating at BB+, maintaining a positive outlook for its upgrade to investment grade. This is the fourth consecutive time that the agency has given Serbia a positive outlook, according to its latest report.
According to Fitch, Serbia’s credit rating is supported by a stable mix of economic policies, a commitment to maintaining exchange rate stability, responsible fiscal management, high foreign exchange reserves, and a higher gross domestic product per capita compared to countries with the same rating.
The positive outlook is also based on expectations of accelerated economic growth, which should be fueled by investments, stabilization of public debt at a relatively low level, and the economy’s resilience to external shocks.
The Governor of the National Bank of Serbia, Jorgovanka Tabakovic, assessed that the renewed retention of the positive outlook demonstrated Fitch’s confidence in Serbia’s economic prospects.
– The fact that the Fitch rating agency has again assessed that Serbia is halfway to receiving an investment grade rating, in conditions of increased global uncertainty and external shocks, confirms that we are on the right track – preserving stability and strengthening resilience – Tabakovic stated.
She pointed out that the agency’s report specifically recognized Serbia’s increased resilience through proactive measures, diversification of export markets, as well as sources of supply and financing.
Economic growth supported by investments and EXPO 2027
Fitch estimates that Serbia’s economic growth accelerated in early 2026 and expects it to remain stable, supported by the completion of projects from the “Leap into the Future” program. An additional impetus to growth should be brought by the holding of the EXPO 2027 international exhibition, which is why the agency predicts an acceleration of growth to four percent in 2027.
In the medium term, economic growth is expected to stabilize at around 3.5 percent per year. Fitch also estimates that gross domestic product per capita, expressed in dollars, could grow by about 50 percent between 2024 and 2028.
Improving external position
According to Fitch, Serbia’s current account deficit narrowed significantly at the beginning of this year and amounted to only 0.4 percent of projected GDP in the first four months. This was contributed by a smaller trade deficit, strong exports, especially in the automotive industry, a larger surplus in the exchange of services and an increase in remittances.
For the whole of 2026, Fitch expects a current account deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP, which is less than the 4.9 percent recorded the previous year, despite higher energy prices. A further decline is expected in 2027, primarily due to higher exports of tourism services related to the EXPO 2027.
The agency estimates that net foreign direct investment inflows will stabilize at just below 3 percent of GDP in the period from 2026 to 2028, with a gradual shift in the investment structure towards sectors with higher added value.
Fiscal policy remains under control
Fitch expects Serbia’s fiscal policy to remain responsible despite the potential upcoming election cycle. The fiscal deficit in 2026 is estimated to be 3 percent of GDP, despite support measures for vulnerable groups and pensioners worth around 0.6 percent of GDP.
According to the report, these measures will be covered by higher fiscal revenues, while by 2028 the fiscal deficit is expected to decrease to 2.5 percent of GDP, in line with the goals defined in the arrangement with the International Monetary Fund.
Fitch forecasts that the share of public debt in GDP will stabilize at around 44 percent in the period from 2026 to 2028, which is significantly below the average of countries with the same or higher credit rating.
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